What the Blue Jays can Learn from the Maple Leafs' Contract Situation
Ability to keep your own free agents a luxury Jays soon won't be able to afford
In the fall of 2016, my best friend and I made a $100 bet neither of us may be alive to see the end of. Which major Toronto sports team would win a championship next was the question. The Blue Jays were my answer, the Maple Leafs his.
At the time, there was a shred of sense in our choices. For me, the Jays were coming off back-to-back playoff appearances - the first since I was 6 years old - and lost in the ALCS both times. Little did I know that the aging band was about to break up. For my buddy, the Leafs were on the precipice of ushering in a new era. Mere days after witnessing Auston Matthews light the lamp four times in his NHL debut, the Jays were eliminated and all signs pointed upwards for the next decade in the blue and white.
The elephant in the room kicker? Neither of us chose the Raptors. Or Toronto FC. Hell, even the Argos won the Grey Cup in 2017.
Huh.
Fast forward five years and the symmetry is breathtaking. The Jays have the young core with all the quasi-unrealized potential in the world while the Leafs are suddenly the team who needs to prove something before their band is told it’s not you, it’s me.
In the franchises’ flip flop over the past half decade, there’s a lesson Jays’ management can take from those Leafs: it’s now or (likely) never.
While everyone is enjoying the fun that is the 2021 Blue Jays season, it’s hard not to look ahead, specifically with regard to free-agents-to-be Marcus Semien and Robby Ray. Much of the discourse surrounds:
Which one will stay?
Do they even want to stay?
Which should the Jays choose?
They can’t afford both (can they?)
These questions are too far into the weeds. The bigger question is this: do the Jays want to win with this core? If we assume the affirmative, then the window isn’t when Vlad, Bo, et al. get to their prime; the window is now.
The same year Auston Matthews potted four in his debut, the Leafs made the playoffs. Bowing out to Washington with house money in the first round should have signalled the Bay (Street) window wide open. Not because the team was close, but because with some tactful additions, it had the chance to be.
The NHL’s hard cap may be apples to MLB’s oranges, but both leagues structure entry level contracts similarly. With Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander all on entry level deals in 2016 and 2017 and Matthews and Marner still there in 2018, they had ample cap room to insulate them. We obviously know how that went, and how the salary structure currently sits.
Sure, hindsight is 20/20. But Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins have the benefit of staring straight at hindsight’s reflection.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette can play Matthews and Marner in this rendition. The Jays’ duo are mega-deal players in waiting. But will the club be as strong in five years when they’re in their prime than it is right now? If you’re not willing to bet on that, then the Jays need to go for it in the next three seasons.
Both Guerrero Jr. and Bichette have four more seasons after this one of arbitration eligibility and won’t be UFAs until 2026. Sure, the longer you wait to sign them long term the more you’ll pay. What will they command? $35 million per season? $40 million? More? And they’d be worth every penny. But you know what also pays big? Playoff runs.
Guerrero Jr.’s salary in 2021 is $605,000. Bichette’s is $587,000. The Jays have committed a total just shy of $65 million for next season, according to Spotrac. Should the discussion really be about choosing between Ray and Semien?
This doesn’t even take into account the Rogers factor. Yes, Rogers has lots of money. Yes, they could spend whatever they want. No, they won’t. Shi Davidi speculated on the Bob McCown podcast recently that Rogers would likely commit to being a top 6-10 payroll in baseball consistently. Based on this season, Boston (6) had a payroll of $182.4 million and San Francisco (10) was at $161.7 million. The 2021 Blue Jays were eleventh in MLB at $150.1 million.
Hypothetically, if Ray and Semien command a combined $55 million for next year, that leaves the Jays with between $40 million and $60 million to fill out the rest of their roster. There are always payroll gymnastics to work out - Teoscar Hernandez only has one more arbitration year and Jose Berríos is a UFA after next year - but there’s a path here. The path gets wider two years from now when $30 million of Hyun-jin Ryu and Randal Grichuk come off the books.
The Blue Jays won’t and shouldn’t try to be Yankees north, however. They’ll never be able to spend that way - and the modern Yankees aren’t exactly a model for it being effective. The Jays still need to rely heavily on the farm for quality, inexpensive talent.
One monumental failure of the Leafs’ strategy is the failure to insulate their core with a pipeline of up and comers. With the exception of Rasmus Sandin, Kyle Dubas has been dumpster diving more often than he’d like. The economics of the two sports are surely different - and the hard NHL cap makes spending regulated, not discretionary - but the Jays’ prospect pipeline is plentiful.
MLB.com lists their top prospects here, and the top three are due in the big leagues within the next two seasons:
Gabriel Moreno - C (21) - 2022 MLB projected arrival
Orelvis Martinez - SS- 3B (19) - 2023 MLB projected arrival
Jordan Groshans - SS/3B (21) - 2022 MLB projected arrival
There’s an argument that one of Martinez or Groshans could replace Semien for much cheaper. There’s also Cavan Biggio, too, who has been largely forgotten this season. But how many kids can be on a World Series contenting team?
The time is ripe for this. Re-signing your star UFAs won’t be a possibility when Guerrero Jr. and Bichette are on their mega deals. Just ask Kyle Dubas. Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins deserve all the credit in the world for rebuilding this team and putting them in an ideal situation. Now they have to take advantage of that window. If one of Ray or Semien leaves, they should be right back out in the market buying their replacement.
“You have to enjoy the moment.” - Kawhi Leonard, recent Toronto champion.
And that moment costs money. If the Leafs have any advice, it’s likely that it’s worth paying for. There’s always the chance I’ll win that bet, too.